The underlying cause isn’t a secret. Rising government debts, and
expectations of an economic recovery,
are pushing up long-term interest rates on government debt. The yield on
the 10-Year Treasury, which was barely 2% near the end of last year,
surged to 3.67% late last week. Rising treasuries, drive up rates on
all other long term loans.

This surge in mortgage rates is likely to bring pain throughout the
mortgage market. It makes it difficult to refinance an existing home
loan, and by raising the costs of ownership of newly sold homes will
make it tougher on both buyers and sellers of existing properties.

If rates are 11 percent higher, then the cost of buying that house just
got 11 percent more painful. Marginal sales become harder to make and
you’ll see more downward pressure on housing prices and sales volume
throughout the market.

Unfortunately, if you were slogging through a refi when rates jumped,
you are probably stuck with a new higher price. Gone are the days when
lenders would lock in rates at the beginning of the loan process. In
todays more regulated market, rates aren’t locked until near the end of
the process. Until your home appraisal is in, and your income proven,
you are at the mercy of changing rates. With the new, more closely
managed process adding weeks to a loan origination, more borrowers are
at greater risk of finding the loan they started working towards is not
the loan that eventually gets written. Rates today are still pretty reasonable by historic standards, but
there isn’t much certainty in today’s home loan market.

In the borader scope of the economy, the Fed’s intervention in the
markets might solve short term credit access and liquidity problems,
but are likely creating new long term structural problems. “When you
print new money to buy up treasury bonds you are just trading one
Federal IOU for another” said Howard Witkin, president of BestRate.Net.
Ultimately everything rests on the confidence in the underlying strength
and credit worthiness of Washington. As the fed tries to replace
trillions in treasuries and mortgage backed bonds with greenbacks, it
risks transfering the skepticism of those into skepticism of the dollar
itself. “The mint is going to have to run 24/7 to print enough money
to cover the promises being made daily by the White House and the Fed.”

Some borrowers are now looking instead at adjustable rate mortgages, or ARMs.
While the teaser rate might look good, in the end you are taking on
all of the lenders inflation risks onto yourself. In years to come
those risks look to be very substantial, Rising adjustable rates will put
new borrowers under water. That’s a story we’ve already heard. And it
wasn’t a pretty one.

The program includes annual payments to the lenders of up to 1000 for approving the modification and additional bonuses if the homeowners are still in their home five years from now. Investors need not apply. As long as your mortgage is owned by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac they will even reduce your principal to get you into the program.

Under this program, interest rates can go as low as 2% to get the payments down to an affordable 2% of the family income.

Here’s the Treasury department summary of the program:

Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan

Executive Summary

Read the Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan Fact Sheet HERE
Read Support Under the Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan: Three Cases HERE

The deep contraction in the economy and in the housing market has created devastating consequences for homeowners and communities throughout the country.

* Millions of responsible families who make their monthly payments and fulfill their obligations have seen their property values fall, and are now unable to refinance at lower mortgage rates.

* Millions of workers have lost their jobs or had their hours cut back, are now struggling to stay current on their mortgage payments – with nearly 6 million households facing possible foreclosure.

* Neighborhoods are struggling, as each foreclosed home reduces nearby property values by as much as 9 percent.

1.
Refinancing for Up to 4 to 5 Million Responsible Homeowners to Make Their Mortgages More Affordable

2.
A $75 Billion Homeowner Stability Initiative to Reach Up to 3 to 4 Million At-Risk Homeowners

3.
Supporting Low Mortgage Rates By Strengthening Confidence in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

The Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan is part of the President’s broad, comprehensive strategy to get the economy back on track. The plan will help up to 7 to 9 million families restructure or refinance their mortgages to avoid foreclosure. In doing so, the plan not only helps responsible homeowners on the verge of defaulting, but prevents neighborhoods and communities from being pulled over the edge too, as defaults and foreclosures contribute to falling home values, failing local businesses, and lost jobs. The key components of the Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan are:

1. Affordability: Provide Access to Low-Cost Refinancing for Responsible Homeowners Suffering From Falling Home Prices

· Enabling Up to 4 to 5 Million Responsible Homeowners to Refinance: Mortgage rates are currently at historically low levels, providing homeowners with the opportunity to reduce their monthly payments by refinancing. But under current rules, most families who owe more than 80 percent of the value of their homes have a difficult time refinancing. Yet millions of responsible homeowners who put money down and made their mortgage payments on time have – through no fault of their own – seen the value of their homes drop low enough to make them unable to access these lower rates. As a result, the Obama Administration is announcing a new program that will help as many as 4 to 5 million responsible homeowners who took out conforming loans owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac to refinance through those two institutions.

· Reducing Monthly Payments: For many families, a low-cost refinancing could reduce mortgage payments by thousands of dollars per year:

o Consider a family that took out a 30-year fixed rate mortgage of $207,000 with an interest rate of 6.50% on a house worth $260,000 at the time. Today, that family has about $200,000 remaining on their mortgage, but the value of that home has fallen 15 percent to $221,000 – making them ineligible for today’s low interest rates that now generally require the borrower to have 20 percent home equity. Under this refinancing plan, that family could refinance to a rate near 5.16% – reducing their annual payments by over $2,300.

2. Stability: Create A $75 Billion Homeowner Stability Initiative to Reach Up to 3 to 4 Million At-Risk Homeowners

* Helping Hard-Pressed Homeowners Stay in their Homes: This initiative is intended to reach millions of responsible homeowners who are struggling to afford their mortgage payments because of the current recession, yet cannot sell their homes because prices have fallen so significantly. Millions of hard-working families have seen their mortgage payments rise to 40 or even 50 percent of their monthly income – particularly those who received subprime and exotic loans with exploding terms and hidden fees. The Homeowner Stability Initiative helps those who commit to make reasonable monthly mortgage payments to stay in their homes – providing families with security and neighborhoods with stability.

* No Aid for Speculators: This initiative will go solely to helping homeowners who commit to make payments to stay in their home – it will not aid speculators or house flippers.

* Protecting Neighborhoods: This plan will also help to stabilize home prices for all homeowners in a neighborhood. When a home goes into foreclosure, the entire neighborhood is hurt. The average homeowner could see his or her home value stabilized against declines in price by as much as $6,000 relative to what it would otherwise be absent the Homeowner Stability Initiative.

* Providing Support for Responsible Homeowners: Because loan modifications are more likely to succeed if they are made before a borrower misses a payment, the plan will include households at risk of imminent default despite being current on their mortgage payments.

* Providing Loan Modifications to Bring Monthly Payments to Sustainable Levels: The Homeowner Stability Initiative has a simple goal: reduce the amount homeowners owe per month to sustainable levels. Using money allocated under the Financial Stability Plan and the full strength of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, this program has several key components:

+ A Shared Effort to Reduce Monthly Payments: For a sample household with payments adding up to 43 percent of his monthly income, the lender would first be responsible for bringing down interest rates so that the borrower’s monthly mortgage payment is no more than 38 percent of his or her income. Next, the initiative would match further reductions in interest payments dollar-for-dollar with the lender to bring that ratio down to 31 percent. If that borrower had a $220,000 mortgage, that could mean a reduction in monthly payments by over $400. That lower interest rate must be kept in place for five years, after which it could gradually be stepped up to the conforming loan rate in place at the time of the modification. Lenders will also be able to bring down monthly payments by reducing the principal owed on the mortgage, with Treasury sharing in the costs.

+ “Pay for Success” Incentives to Servicers: Servicers will receive an up-front fee of $1,000 for each eligible modification meeting guidelines established under this initiative. They will also receive “pay for success” fees – awarded monthly as long as the borrower stays current on the loan – of up to $1,000 each year for three years.

+ Incentives to Help Borrowers Stay Current: To provide an extra incentive for borrowers to keep paying on time, the initiative will provide a monthly balance reduction payment that goes straight towards reducing the principal balance of the mortgage loan. As long as a borrower stays current on his or her loan, he or she can get up to $1,000 each year for five years.

+ Reaching Borrowers Early: To keep lenders focused on reaching borrowers who are trying their best to stay current on their mortgages, an incentive payment of $500 will be paid to servicers, and an incentive payment of $1,500 will be paid to mortgage holders, if they modify at-risk loans before the borrower falls behind.

+ Home Price Decline Reserve Payments: To encourage lenders to modify more mortgages and enable more families to keep their homes, the Administration — together with the FDIC — has developed an innovative partial guarantee initiative. The insurance fund – to be created by the Treasury Department at a size of up to $10 billion – will be designed to discourage lenders from opting to foreclose on mortgages that could be viable now out of fear that home prices will fall even further later on. Holders of mortgages modified under the program would be provided with an additional insurance payment on each modified loan, linked to declines in the home price index.

* Institute Clear and Consistent Guidelines for Loan Modifications: Treasury will develop uniform guidance for loan modifications across the mortgage industry, working closely with the bank agencies and building on the FDIC’s pioneering work. The Guidelines will be used for the Administration’s new foreclosure prevention plan. Moreover, all financial institutions receiving Financial Stability Plan financial assistance going forward will be required to implement loan modification plans consistent with Treasury Guidance. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will use these guidelines for loans that they own or guarantee, and the Administration will work with regulators and other federal and state agencies to implement these guidelines across the entire mortgage market. The agencies will seek to apply these guidelines when permissible and appropriate to all loans owned or guaranteed by the federal government, including those owned or guaranteed by Ginnie Mae, the Federal Housing Administration, Treasury, the Federal Reserve, the FDIC, Veterans’ Affairs and the Department of Agriculture.

* Other Comprehensive Measures to Reduce Foreclosure and Strengthen Communities

o

Require Strong Oversight, Reporting and Quarterly Meetings with Treasury, the FDIC, the Federal Reserve and HUD to Monitor Performance

o

Allow Judicial Modifications of Home Mortgages During Bankruptcy for Borrowers Who Have Run Out of Options

o

Provide $1.5 Billion in Relocation and Other Forms of Assistance to Renters Displaced by Foreclosure and $2 Billion in Neighborhood Stabilization Funds

o

Improve the Flexibility of Hope for Homeowners and Other FHA Programs to Modify and Refinance At-Risk Borrowers

3. Supporting Low Mortgage Rates By Strengthening Confidence in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac:

* Ensuring Strength and Security of the Mortgage Market: Today, using funds already authorized in 2008 by Congress for this purpose, the Treasury Department is increasing its funding commitment to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to ensure the strength and security of the mortgage market and to help maintain mortgage affordability.

o Provide Forward-Looking Confidence: The increased funding will enable Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to carry out ambitious efforts to ensure mortgage affordability for responsible homeowners, and provide forward-looking confidence in the mortgage market.

o Treasury is increasing its Preferred Stock Purchase Agreements to $200 billion each from their original level of $100 billion each.

* Promoting Stability and Liquidity: In addition, the Treasury Department will continue to purchase Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage-backed securities to promote stability and liquidity in the marketplace.
* Increasing The Size of Mortgage Portfolios: To ensure that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can continue to provide assistance in addressing problems in the housing market, Treasury will also be increasing the size of the GSEs’ retained mortgage portfolios allowed under the agreements – by $50 billion to $900 billion – along with corresponding increases in the allowable debt outstanding.
* Support State Housing Finance Agencies: The Administration will work with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to support state housing finance agencies in serving homebuyers.
* No EESA or Financial Stability Plan Money: The $200 billion in funding commitments are being made under the Housing and Economic Recovery Act and do not use any money from the Financial Stability Plan or Emergency Economic Stabilization Act/TARP.

Here are the quotes:

Obama said today that the U.S. is suffering from a “massive hangover” from years of risk-taking and that some banks remain “very vulnerable.” In an interview on NBC’s Today show, he said it’s likely some banks haven’t fully disclosed their losses.

“They’re going to have to write down those losses, and some banks won’t make it,” he said. Referring to the administration’s plan for the financial industry, he said “I do have confidence we’re going to get it right but it’s not going to be overnight.”

Here’s how Bloomberg reported the story:

In the recent mortgage and housing boom, significant percentages of home loans were originated by independent brokers. As salespeople their interests didn’t always align with the interest of the lender or the borrower. In many cases the drive to “get the loan done”, and the multithousand dollar commissions for doing so influenced brokers and their clients to stretch the truth to qualify. Lenders were just as anxious to create loans they could package and sell. Since the loan was being sold off to an invisible investor, the risk would soon leave the lenders books. Overall it created a tremendous incentive to cheat in ways large and small to get the loans written and placed.

Unfortunately, it is very difficult to underwrite for fraud. The rating agencies judging the quality of the bonds based on these mortgages could easily understand the likelihood of default in a standard marketplace, they didn’t account for the weakness and deceptiveness of the underlying data. Unfortunately there has been no easy way to easily identify trends of loan failures and tie them back to individual participants in the system. Next year that will change. Starting in January 2010 the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise is requiring a system where every participant in the loan origination process will be assigned an id number, and those numbers will be attached to the loan. Once in place the system will allow regulators to look at the aggregate loan performance of any appraiser, broker, banker and identify those whose loans are statistically bad, fraudulent or under-performing.

When combined with more stringent standards for borrowers to prove their actual incomes, the new standards should grind much of the fraud out of the origination process. So if you are gonna cheat, get it over with now.

Here’s the circumstance: if you fall far enough behind on paying your federal income taxes, either personally, or as a small businessperson, the IRS can file a Tax Lien against all of your personal property. That includes your house. And that tax lien takes precedence over your mortgage. That means the IRS can seize your home and sell it to cover your tax debt. If there isn’t enough money to pay back the lender, they are just out of luck. Unfortunately, that means no lender will want to carry a mortgage on your home. Which means you can’t possibly refinance your way out of an exploding mortgage and into a nice new safe mortgage.

Today the IRS announced that they are willing to “subordinate” their lien to your mortgage. If the house gets sold, the lender is protected and gets to go first. The IRS has over 1 million current tax liens against US residents, so a lot of families got a load of relief today.

Read more about the story here at the Journal or here in the IRS Newsroom

As 2008 comes to an end, we are starting to see corrections in the Home Loan Mortgage Lending market. Over the last weeks of November Fed actions to bring interest rates down as low as 5.5% on 30 year home loans combined with a 15 to 20 percent drop in the average cost of housing have worked to bring affordablity of housing way up. Read more about it here at FoxNews.

“The feds agreed to spend a half a trillion dollars to buy up mortgage backed securities and another $100 billion to fund lending for Fannie and Freddie; we’re not talking chump change anymore,” said Keith Gumbinger of HSH Associates, a publisher of mortgage information.

Rates averaged 5.77% for the day on a 30-year, fixed rate loan, down from 6.06% Monday, according to Gumbinger. They fell as far as 0.75 percentage points during the day, according to Orawin Velz, Associate Vice President for Economic Forecasting at the Mortgage Bankers Association.

That could save a typical homebuyer more than $90 a month on a $200,000 mortgage.

“The government action was geared to bringing mortgage rates down,” said Velz, “and it did.”

The drop was the largest since early September, when the administration announced that it was taking control of mortgage giants Fannie Mae (FNM, Fortune 500) and Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500), and stemmed from similar market sentiment.

Both actions sought to give confidence to the investment community. Most mortgages are sold to investors in so-called secondary markets but with foreclosure rates so high and expensive write downs of mortgage-backed securities so common over the past several months, investors had fled the mortgage market.

Instead of buying mortgage bonds, they’ve been snapping up Treasurys, a virtually risk-free investment. That showed up in the falling yields of Treasury bonds and the greater difference between Treasury yields and mortgage interest rates.

Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) — Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage-finance companies seized by the U.S. government, will suspend foreclosures and evictions over the holidays.

The six-week halt will begin Nov. 26, a day before the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, and last through Jan. 9, the companies said in separate statements today. The hiatus is designed to give servicers more time to implement a streamlined loan modification program for struggling borrowers.

“It’s a giant time out,” Paul Miller, an analyst at FBR Capital Markets in Arlington, Virginia, said today in a Bloomberg Television interview. “I wouldn’t be surprised to see this across the board.”

Fannie and Freddie, government-sponsored enterprises that own or guarantee $5.2 trillion of the $12 trillion U.S. home mortgage market, were placed under federal control Sept. 6. They have since been pushed to work harder at modifying troubled single-family and multifamily mortgages to curtail foreclosures.

Until a streamlined modification program is up and running, “we felt it was in the best interest of both borrowers and Fannie Mae to take this extra step to ensure that homeowners with the desire and ability to prevent foreclosure have an opportunity to stay in their homes,” Fannie Chief Executive Officer Herb Allison said in a statement.

Fannie and Freddie have partnered with HOPE Now, a government-organized coalition of the largest U.S. mortgage servicing companies, to offer borrowers who are at least 90 days delinquent and have high loan-to-income ratios the chance to modify mortgage terms to cut their monthly mortgage payments.

Incremental Steps

The companies plan to reduce interest rates for up to five years and lengthen repayment terms to as much as 40 years to trim monthly payments to roughly 38 percent of a homeowner’s monthly pretax salary. In some cases, borrowers may qualify to temporarily reduce the principal amount of the loan, which would be due without interest if the house is sold or refinanced.

“The Hope Now program is not going to be enough. It’s an incremental step,” said housing advocate John Taylor, president and chief executive officer of the National Community Reinvestment Coalition in Washington. “Obviously, we’re pleased that they’re doing this, but absent a substantive foreclosure program, I wonder if this is this just another problem they’re leaving for the Obama administration.”

Fannie and Freddie posted record third-quarter net losses totaling $54.3 billion last week. Freddie said it needs $13.8 billion from the U.S. Treasury by Nov. 29 to stay solvent, and Fannie said it may need federal aid early next year. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson set up $200 billion in backup financing for Fannie and Freddie in September, saying the companies were failing and threatened the safety of the broader U.S. economy without federal intervention.

Foreclosures

The worst U.S. housing slump since the 1930s is being compounded by a recession that began in the third quarter and may last a year or more, according to Jay Brinkmann, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association. Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell in July at the fastest pace on record, and sales of previously owned homes in August were 32 percent below the peak reached in September 2005.

A total of 765,558 U.S. properties received default notices, which warns of a pending auction, or were foreclosed on in the third quarter, the most since records began in January 2005, according to default data from Irvine, California-based RealtyTrak. Filings rose 3 percent from the second quarter and fell 12 percent in September from August as state laws created to keep people in homes slowed the pace of defaults.