The underlying cause isn’t a secret. Rising government debts, and
expectations of an economic recovery,
are pushing up long-term interest rates on government debt. The yield on
the 10-Year Treasury, which was barely 2% near the end of last year,
surged to 3.67% late last week. Rising treasuries, drive up rates on
all other long term loans.

This surge in mortgage rates is likely to bring pain throughout the
mortgage market. It makes it difficult to refinance an existing home
loan, and by raising the costs of ownership of newly sold homes will
make it tougher on both buyers and sellers of existing properties.

If rates are 11 percent higher, then the cost of buying that house just
got 11 percent more painful. Marginal sales become harder to make and
you’ll see more downward pressure on housing prices and sales volume
throughout the market.

Unfortunately, if you were slogging through a refi when rates jumped,
you are probably stuck with a new higher price. Gone are the days when
lenders would lock in rates at the beginning of the loan process. In
todays more regulated market, rates aren’t locked until near the end of
the process. Until your home appraisal is in, and your income proven,
you are at the mercy of changing rates. With the new, more closely
managed process adding weeks to a loan origination, more borrowers are
at greater risk of finding the loan they started working towards is not
the loan that eventually gets written. Rates today are still pretty reasonable by historic standards, but
there isn’t much certainty in today’s home loan market.

In the borader scope of the economy, the Fed’s intervention in the
markets might solve short term credit access and liquidity problems,
but are likely creating new long term structural problems. “When you
print new money to buy up treasury bonds you are just trading one
Federal IOU for another” said Howard Witkin, president of BestRate.Net.
Ultimately everything rests on the confidence in the underlying strength
and credit worthiness of Washington. As the fed tries to replace
trillions in treasuries and mortgage backed bonds with greenbacks, it
risks transfering the skepticism of those into skepticism of the dollar
itself. “The mint is going to have to run 24/7 to print enough money
to cover the promises being made daily by the White House and the Fed.”

Some borrowers are now looking instead at adjustable rate mortgages, or ARMs.
While the teaser rate might look good, in the end you are taking on
all of the lenders inflation risks onto yourself. In years to come
those risks look to be very substantial, Rising adjustable rates will put
new borrowers under water. That’s a story we’ve already heard. And it
wasn’t a pretty one.

Pricing softness differs from region to region with the Western District weakest and the MountainWest region strongest. Read the report here.

Overall, while the market is weak and prices soft, it is important to realize that housing has not become worthless, its just returned to the value it held in 2005. So don’t panic. Back then those prices seemed amazingly high, and historically they still are.